Early phonological skills as a predictor of reading acquisition: a follow-up study from kindergarten to the middle of grade 2.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the power of early measures of phonological skills (phonemic awareness, rapid naming, short-term memory) in predicting later reading skills at various points of time. About 70 children were followed from the end of kindergarten to the middle of grade 2. Correlation analyses were performed as well as a linear growth curve analyses. In the traditional regression analysis, phonemic awareness in kindergarten explained about 27% of the variance in word reading six months later and about 9.5% of the variance at the end of grade 1. Even when prior level of reading skill was included in the predictive equation, a significant amount of variance was still explained by phonemic awareness. The other predictor variables did not explain any variance in word reading, and phonemic awareness did not predict any variance in reading skills in grade 2. When using sentence reading as the dependent variable, phonemic awareness explained about 16% of unique variance after six months, and about 13% of the variance in the middle of grade 2. Similarly, when employing growth curve analysis, phonemic awareness was the only phonological factor that accounted for significant variance in the word reading slope, explaining about 25% of its variance, whereas naming and short-term memory did not explain any unique variance. The lack of predictive power of phonemic awareness on the sentence b-slope is assumed to be caused by unreliable sentence scores in kindergarten.