OBJECTIVE: This study sought to determine the impact of the World Health Organization's directly observed treatment strategy (DOTS) compared with that of DOTS-plus on tuberculosis deaths, mainly in the developing world. DESIGN: Decision analysis with Monte Carlo simulation of a Markov decision tree. DATA SOURCES: People with smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis. DATA ANALYSIS: Analyses modelled different levels of programme effectiveness of DOTS and DOTS-plus, and high (10%) and intermediate (3%) proportions of primary multidrug resistant tuberculosis, while accounting for exogenous reinfection. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The cumulative number of tuberculosis deaths per 100 000 population over 10 years. RESULTS: The model predicted that under DOTS, 276 people would die from tuberculosis (24 multidrug resistant and 252 not multidrug resistant) over 10 years under optimal implementation in an area with 3% primary multidrug resistant tuberculosis. Optimal implementation of DOTS-plus would result in four (1.5%) fewer deaths. If implementation of DOTS-plus were to result in a decrease of just 5% in the effectiveness of DOTS, 16% more people would die with tuberculosis than under DOTS alone. In an area with 10% primary multidrug resistant tuberculosis, 10% fewer deaths would occur under optimal DOTS-plus than under optimal DOTS, but 16% more deaths would occur if implementation of DOTS-plus were to result in a 5% decrease in the effectiveness of DOTS CONCLUSIONS: Under optimal implementation, fewer tuberculosis deaths would occur under DOTS-plus than under DOTS. If, however, implementation of DOTS-plus were associated with even minimal decreases in the effectiveness of treatment, substantially more patients would die than under DOTS.
OBJECTIVE: This study sought to determine the impact of the World Health Organization's directly observed treatment strategy (DOTS) compared with that of DOTS-plus on tuberculosis deaths, mainly in the developing world. DESIGN: Decision analysis with Monte Carlo simulation of a Markov decision tree. DATA SOURCES: People with smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis. DATA ANALYSIS: Analyses modelled different levels of programme effectiveness of DOTS and DOTS-plus, and high (10%) and intermediate (3%) proportions of primary multidrug resistant tuberculosis, while accounting for exogenous reinfection. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The cumulative number of tuberculosis deaths per 100 000 population over 10 years. RESULTS: The model predicted that under DOTS, 276 people would die from tuberculosis (24 multidrug resistant and 252 not multidrug resistant) over 10 years under optimal implementation in an area with 3% primary multidrug resistant tuberculosis. Optimal implementation of DOTS-plus would result in four (1.5%) fewer deaths. If implementation of DOTS-plus were to result in a decrease of just 5% in the effectiveness of DOTS, 16% more people would die with tuberculosis than under DOTS alone. In an area with 10% primary multidrug resistant tuberculosis, 10% fewer deaths would occur under optimal DOTS-plus than under optimal DOTS, but 16% more deaths would occur if implementation of DOTS-plus were to result in a 5% decrease in the effectiveness of DOTS CONCLUSIONS: Under optimal implementation, fewer tuberculosis deaths would occur under DOTS-plus than under DOTS. If, however, implementation of DOTS-plus were associated with even minimal decreases in the effectiveness of treatment, substantially more patients would die than under DOTS.
Authors: A Pablos-Méndez; M C Raviglione; A Laszlo; N Binkin; H L Rieder; F Bustreo; D L Cohn; C S Lambregts-van Weezenbeek; S J Kim; P Chaulet; P Nunn Journal: N Engl J Med Date: 1998-06-04 Impact factor: 91.245
Authors: O S Toungoussova; A O Mariandyshev; G Bjune; D A Caugant; P Sandven Journal: Eur J Clin Microbiol Infect Dis Date: 2005-03 Impact factor: 3.267
Authors: Sanjay Basu; Jason R Andrews; Eric M Poolman; Neel R Gandhi; N Sarita Shah; Anthony Moll; Prashini Moodley; Alison P Galvani; Gerald H Friedland Journal: Lancet Date: 2007-10-27 Impact factor: 79.321