Learning, prediction and causal Bayes nets.

Recent research in cognitive and developmental psychology on acquiring and using causal knowledge uses the causal Bayes net formalism, which simultaneously represents hypotheses about causal relations, probability relations, and effects of interventions. The formalism provides new normative standards for reinterpreting experiments on human judgment, offers a precise interpretation of mechanisms, and allows generalizations of existing theories of causal learning. Combined with hypotheses about learning algorithms, the formalism makes predictions about inferences in many experimental designs beyond the classical, Pavlovian cue-->effect design.