Update of predictions of mortality from pleural mesothelioma in the Netherlands.

AIMS: To predict the expected number of pleural mesothelioma deaths in the Netherlands from 2000 to 2028 and to study the effect of main uncertainties in the modelling technique.
METHODS: Through an age-period-cohort modelling technique, age specific mortality rates and cohort relative risks by year of birth were calculated from the mortality of pleural mesothelioma in 1969-98. Numbers of death for both sexes were predicted for 2000 to 2028, taking into account the most likely demographic development. In a sensitivity analysis the relative deviation of the future death toll and peak death number were studied under different birth cohort risk assumptions.
RESULTS: The age-cohort model on mortality 1969-98 among men showed the highest age specific death rates in the oldest age group (79 per 100 000 person-years in the age group 80-84 years) and the highest relative risks for the birth cohorts of 1938-42 and 1943-47. Among men a small period effect was observed. The age-cohort model was considered the best model for predicting future mortality. The most plausible scenario predicts an increase in pleural mesothelioma mortality up to 490 cases per year in men, with a total death toll close to 12 400 cases during 2000-28. However, using different assumptions this death toll could rise to nearly 15 000 in men (20% increase). Mortality among women remains low, with a total death toll of about 800 cases. It is predicted that the total death toll in the period 2000-28 is 44% lower than previous predictions using mortality data from 1969 to 1993.
CONCLUSION: Adding five recent years of observed mortality in an age-cohort model resulted in a 44% lower prediction of the future death toll of pleural mesothelioma. A statistically significant period effect was observed, possibly influenced by initial asbestos safety guidelines in the 1970s and introduction of the ICD-10 codification.