BACKGROUND: Several papers have reported state-wide projections of mesothelioma deaths, but few have computed these predictions in selected exposed groups. OBJECTIVE: To predict the future deaths attributable to asbestos in a cohort of railway rolling stock workers. METHODS: The future mortality of the 1,146 living workers has been computed in term of individual probability of dying for three different risks: baseline mortality, lung cancer excess, mesothelioma mortality. Lung cancer mortality attributable to asbestos was calculated assuming the excess risk as stable or with a decrease after a period of time since first exposure. Mesothelioma mortality was based on cumulative exposure and time since first exposure, with the inclusion of a term for clearance of asbestos fibres from the lung. RESULTS: The most likely range of the number of deaths attributable to asbestos in the period 2005-2050 was 15-30 for excess of lung cancer, and 23-35 for mesothelioma. CONCLUSION: This study provides predictions of asbestos-related mortality even in a selected cohort of exposed subjects, using previous knowledge about exposure-response relationship. The inclusion of individual information in the projection model helps reduce misclassification and improves the results. The method could be extended in other selected cohorts.
BACKGROUND: Several papers have reported state-wide projections of mesothelioma deaths, but few have computed these predictions in selected exposed groups. OBJECTIVE: To predict the future deaths attributable to asbestos in a cohort of railway rolling stock workers. METHODS: The future mortality of the 1,146 living workers has been computed in term of individual probability of dying for three different risks: baseline mortality, lung cancer excess, mesothelioma mortality. Lung cancer mortality attributable to asbestos was calculated assuming the excess risk as stable or with a decrease after a period of time since first exposure. Mesothelioma mortality was based on cumulative exposure and time since first exposure, with the inclusion of a term for clearance of asbestos fibres from the lung. RESULTS: The most likely range of the number of deaths attributable to asbestos in the period 2005-2050 was 15-30 for excess of lung cancer, and 23-35 for mesothelioma. CONCLUSION: This study provides predictions of asbestos-related mortality even in a selected cohort of exposed subjects, using previous knowledge about exposure-response relationship. The inclusion of individual information in the projection model helps reduce misclassification and improves the results. The method could be extended in other selected cohorts.
Authors: Michael Hauptmann; Hermann Pohlabeln; Jay H Lubin; Karl-Heinz Jöckel; Wolfgang Ahrens; Irene Brüske-Hohlfeld; H -Erich Wichmann Journal: Am J Ind Med Date: 2002-02 Impact factor: 2.214
Authors: Silvano Gallus; Piergiorgio Zuccaro; Paolo Colombo; Giovanni Apolone; Roberta Pacifici; Silvio Garattini; Cristina Bosetti; Carlo La Vecchia Journal: Prev Med Date: 2007-03-31 Impact factor: 4.018
Authors: C Magnani; D Ferrante; F Barone-Adesi; M Bertolotti; A Todesco; D Mirabelli; B Terracini Journal: Occup Environ Med Date: 2007-08-17 Impact factor: 4.402
Authors: G Berry; N H de Klerk; A Reid; G L Ambrosini; L Fritschi; N J Olsen; E Merler; A W Musk Journal: Occup Environ Med Date: 2004-04 Impact factor: 4.402
Authors: R P Musselman; W C Miiller; W Eastes; J G Hadley; O Kamstrup; P Thevenaz; T W Hesterberg Journal: Environ Health Perspect Date: 1994-10 Impact factor: 9.031