Components of the "metabolic syndrome" and incidence of type 2 diabetes.

The combination of insulin resistance, dyslipidemia, hypertension, and obesity has been described as a "metabolic syndrome" that is a strong determinant of type 2 diabetes. Factor analysis was used to identify components of this syndrome in 1,918 Pima Indians. Prospective analyses were conducted to evaluate associations of identified factors with incidence of diabetes. Factor analysis identified 4 factors that accounted for 79% of the variance in the original 10 variables. Each of these factors reflected a proposed component of the metabolic syndrome: insulinemia, body size, blood pressure, and lipid metabolism. Among 890 originally nondiabetic participants with follow-up data, 144 developed diabetes in a median follow-up of 4.1 years. The insulinemia factor was strongly associated with diabetes incidence (incidence rate ratio [IRR] for a 1-SD difference in factor scores = 1.81, P < 0.01). The body size and lipids factors also significantly predicted diabetes (IRR 1.52 and 1.37, respectively, P < 0.01 for both), whereas the blood pressure factor did not (IRR 1.11, P = 0.20). Identification of four unique factors with different associations with incidence of diabetes suggests that the correlations among these variables reflect distinct metabolic processes, about which substantial information may be lost in the attempt to combine them into a single entity.