Long-term predictions of the therapeutic equivalence of daily and less than daily alendronate dosing.

Less than daily alendronate dosing has been identified as an attractive alternative to daily dosing for patients and physicians. A recent 2-year study found bone mineral density (BMD) changes caused by weekly alendronate dosing therapeutically equivalent to that caused by daily dosing. There are no methods that can be used to predict how long therapeutic equivalence will be maintained after the first 2 years of treatment. In addition, it is unclear if dosing less frequently than weekly also might be therapeutically equivalent to daily dosing. In this study we use a computer simulation to develop predictions of the therapeutic equivalence of daily and less than daily dosing over time periods as long as a decade. The computer simulation uses a cell-based computer model of bone remodeling and a quantitative description of alendronate pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics (PK/PD). The analyses suggest that less than daily dosing regimens do not increase BMD as much as daily dosing. However, model predictions suggest that dosing as frequent as weekly still may be therapeutically equivalent to daily dosing over periods as long as 10 years. In addition, the simulations predict dosing less frequently than weekly may be therapeutically equivalent to daily dosing within the first year of treatment but may not be therapeutically equivalent after 10 years. Hypotheses based on these simulations may be useful for determining which dosing regimen may be most attractive for clinical trials.