Can we reverse the HIV/AIDS pandemic with an expanded response?

HIV/AIDS has reached pandemic proportions, and is one of the leading causes of death worldwide. In 2001, the Declaration of Commitment on HIV/AIDS set out several aims with respect to reducing the effect and spread of HIV/AIDS, and an expanded response in low-income and middle-income countries was initiated. Here we examine the potential effect of the expanded global response based on analyses of epidemiological data, of mathematical models of HIV-1 transmission, and a review of the impact of prevention interventions on risk behaviours. Analyses suggest that if the successes achieved in some countries in prevention of transmission can be expanded to a global scale by 2005, about 29 million new infections could be prevented by 2010.