An evaluation of chest X-ray screening for lung cancer in gunma prefecture, Japan: a population-based case-control study.

In order to evaluate the efficacy of annual chest X-ray screening for lung cancer, a case-control study was conducted in Gunma Prefecture, Japan. Population-based annual lung cancer screening programmes have been conducted by the local government in Gunma Prefecture since the mid-1970s. A total of 121 case subjects, including 91 high-risk males and 30 non-high-risk females between the ages of 40 and 79 years who died of lung cancer from 1992 to 1997 were evaluated. A total of 536 controls (3-5 controls for each case) were matched to case subjects by gender, year of birth, address and smoking habits. Controls were selected from screening programme lists provided by the local governments. All case subjects were also included on these lists. The smoking-adjusted odds ratio (OR) of lung cancer death for those subjects screened within 12 months prior to diagnosis versus those not screened was 0.68 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.44-1.05; P=0.084). When the analysis was conducted without matching case and control subjects by smoking habits, the OR was 0.79 (95% CI: 0.53-1.18). When stratified by histological type, the OR was 0.62 (95% CI: 0.31-1.24) for adenocarcinoma, and 1.01 (95% CI: 0.44-2.31) for squamous cell carcinoma. The results of this study suggest 20-30% of deaths attributable to lung cancer, especially adenocarcinoma, might be prevented by annual chest X-rays.