The role of contextual, child and parent factors in predicting criminal outcomes in adolescence.

This study examined predictor variables that would contribute toward an explanatory model linking child maltreatment and the outcome of crime seriousness. A secondary data analysis was completed on a random sample of youth committed and detained by a juvenile justice system in the northeast United States. Although existing data indicate a predisposition to crime and violence among youth that are maltreated, more research is needed to determine the exact nature of the link, as well as the need to determine the relationship of associated factors. The aim of this analysis was to identify key contextual, child, and parental factors related to maladaptive behavior in abused and neglected adolescent offenders. Logistic regression was used to predict serious criminal outcomes. Overall, 73% of the cases were correctly classified. Ten variables remained in the model to predict serious juvenile criminal behavior. Youth who had been exposed to community violence or who had a mother with mental illness were four times as likely to commit serious criminal behaviors.