Bayesian methods for quantitative trait loci mapping based on model selection: approximate analysis using the Bayesian information criterion.

We describe an approximate method for the analysis of quantitative trait loci (QTL) based on model selection from multiple regression models with trait values regressed on marker genotypes, using a modification of the easily calculated Bayesian information criterion to estimate the posterior probability of models with various subsets of markers as variables. The BIC-delta criterion, with the parameter delta increasing the penalty for additional variables in a model, is further modified to incorporate prior information, and missing values are handled by multiple imputation. Marginal probabilities for model sizes are calculated, and the posterior probability of nonzero model size is interpreted as the posterior probability of existence of a QTL linked to one or more markers. The method is demonstrated on analysis of associations between wood density and markers on two linkage groups in Pinus radiata. Selection bias, which is the bias that results from using the same data to both select the variables in a model and estimate the coefficients, is shown to be a problem for commonly used non-Bayesian methods for QTL mapping, which do not average over alternative possible models that are consistent with the data.