Experimental designs for reliable detection of linkage disequilibrium in unstructured random population association studies.

A method is given for design of experiments to detect associations (linkage disequilibrium) in a random population between a marker and a quantitative trait locus (QTL), or gene, with a given strength of evidence, as defined by the Bayes factor. Using a version of the Bayes factor that can be linked to the value of an F-statistic with an existing deterministic power calculation makes it possible to rapidly evaluate a comprehensive range of scenarios, demonstrating the feasibility, or otherwise, of detecting genes of small effect. The Bayes factor is advocated for use in determining optimal strategies for selecting candidate genes for further testing or applications. The prospects for fine-scale mapping of QTL are reevaluated in this framework. We show that large sample sizes are needed to detect small-effect genes with a respectable-sized Bayes factor, and to have good power to detect a QTL allele at low frequency it is necessary to have a marker with similar allele frequency near the gene.