Independent prospective validation of the PaP score in terminally ill patients referred to a hospital-based palliative medicine consultation service.

The aim of this prospective study was to validate the Palliative Prognostic (PaP) Score in a population of hospitalized patients in Australia in order to determine its applicability in a different setting to that in which it was originally developed. Individual PaP scores were calculated for 100 terminally-ill patients consecutively referred to a palliative medicine consultation service based in a university teaching hospital. The PaP score was able to subdivide this heterogeneous patient population into three groups, the differences being highly statistically significant. Median survivals for the three groups were, respectively, 60 days (95% confidence interval 41-89 days), 34 days (25-40), and 8 days (2-11). The percentage survival at 30 days for the three groups was 66%, 54%, and 5% respectively. These data suggest that the PaP scoring system is a reasonably robust method for prognostication in advanced cancer that appears to be independent of the setting. The short survival of the third group in this study, which is consistent with the presence of a subset of gravely ill patients within the hospital setting who are referred to specialist palliative care services very late in the course of their illness, raises important issues for the care and treatment of these individuals.