An innovative approach of risk planning for space programs.

According to the current rule-based risk management approach at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the effort is directed to contain all identified risks of a program. The identification of hazards and mitigation effort proceeds along with the development of the system hardware, till all the tradable resources for a program is exhausted. In this process, no conscious effort is made to evaluate risks and associated cost, and the final design is likely to have undesirable residual risks. This approach also results in allocating a significant amount of resources to gain only marginal mitigation of hazard and leave some undesirable hazards in the system due to the budget limitation. The approach in the proposed knowledge-based risk planning system makes a conscious attempt to trade risk with other resources, e.g., schedule, cost, reliability, performance, and others in a judicious and cost-effective way. A knowledge of the feasible option sets requiring high incremental cost for a marginal gain in hazard reduction helps the management to make decision for residual risk that falls within an acceptable range for an option set.