The dynamics of tuberculosis in response to 10 years of intensive control effort in Peru.

Improved tuberculosis (TB) case detection and cure rates are expected to accelerate the decline in incidence of TB and to reduce TB-associated deaths. Time series analyses of case reports in Peru showed that the per capita TB incidence rate was probably steady before 1991. Case reports increased between 1990 and 1992 as a result of improved case detection. Although diagnostic efforts have continued to increase since 1993, the incidence of new pulmonary TB cases has declined in every department of the country, with a national rate of decline > or =5.8% per year (range, 1.9%-9.7%). This elevated rate of decline suggests that 27% (19%-34%) of cases (158,000) and 70% (63%-77%) of deaths (91,000) among smear-positive patients were averted between 1991 and 2000. This is the first demonstration that a significant number of TB cases can be prevented through intensive short-course chemotherapy in a high-burden country.