MIRABEL: models for integrated review and assessment of biodiversity in European landscapes.

In this paper, we present the methodology and some results from the application of an integrating conceptual framework, MIRABEL, to analyze the consequences of environmental change for biodiversity. For 28 European countries, MIRABEL tabulates changes in the status of threatened habitats predicted to result from 10 environmental pressures. Regional variations in the severity of the pressures and impacts are taken into account by compiling separate impact tables for each of 13 Ecological Regions. Results suggest that agricultural intensification is one of the main threats, however, differences recorded by MIRABEL in the intensity of the pressures, their rate of change and their past and expected impacts on biodiversity in the various Ecological Regions is telling evidence of Europe's biogeographical variety, and of the need to take this into consideration when assessing environmental change.