The repeatability of serum carotenoid, retinoid, and tocopherol concentrations in specimens of blood collected 15 years apart.

Community-wide programs to collect blood for a research serum bank were carried out in Washington County, Maryland in 1974 and 1989. Of the 8395 persons who participated in both programs, 64 were controls in a nested case-control study of the association of antioxidant micronutrients with subsequent breast cancer, and 30 and 166 were controls in similar studies of lung and prostate cancer. Assay results for five carotenoids, two retinoids, and two tocopherols in samples of blood collected 15 years apart were thus available for comparisons of micronutrient concentrations. The mean Spearman rank order correlation coefficient for all comparisons was 0.44, with two coefficients greater than 0.60 and two less than 0.30. Blood pressure readings at the two blood collections had a mean rank order correlation coefficient of 0.46. Because blood pressure readings in 1974 were shown to be significantly predictive of atherosclerosis 15-18 years later, the present results suggest that ranked concentrations of antioxidant micronutrients from a single sample are sufficiently representative to be used as predictors of subsequent concentrations and are thus suitable for assessment as risk factors for subsequent illnesses.