Proximal femoral fracture in Northern Ireland between 1985-1997--trends and future projections.

The aims of this study were to identify changing trends with time of the incidence of proximal femoral fracture and to enable future number of hip fractures to be projected. Hospital theatre records in Northern Ireland were surveyed in 1985, 1991, 1994 and 1997 to establish the number of surgical procedures for proximal femoral fracture. The age and sex specific rates for males and females aged 50+ years were calculated. Analysis of age and sex specific incidence rates was undertaken using linear regression and Poisson regression. A 1.6% increase per annum (95% CI 1.0-2.2) was noted in males and females from 1985 to 1997. Projected increases in rates of proximal femoral fracture were calculated using population projection for 2001, 2006, 2011 and 2016. Modelling (a) assuming the age standardised rates in 1997 remain static and continue predicted a 55% fracture increase in males and a 29% increase in females by 2016, (b) assuming the secular increases continued predicted a 93% fracture increase in males and a 67% increase in females and (c) assuming further linear growth on a log-scale predicted a fracture increase in males of 135% and 99% in females. The number of proximal femoral fractures in Northern Ireland is increasing faster than that anticipated due to demographic changes alone, supporting a secular increase which was evident throughout the period of time studied, in contrast to that reported from other regions in the United Kingdom.