Osteoporotic fractures of the proximal humerus in elderly Finnish persons: sharp increase in 1970-1998 and alarming projections for the new millennium.

We determined the current trends in the number and incidence of osteoporotic fractures of the proximal humerus in Finland by collecting from the National Hospital Discharge Register all patients 60 years of age or more who were admitted to Finnish hospitals in 1970-1998 for primary treatment of such fractures. The fracture was defined osteoporotic if it was caused by a low-energy trauma only, i.e., a fall from standing height or less. The number and incidence (per 10(5) persons) of fractures increased sharply from 208 (number) and 32 (incidence) in 1970 to 1,105 and 110 in 1998. Even after the age-adjustment, the incidence of fractures showed a clear increase: in women from 50 in 1970 to 133 in 1998, and in men from 14 in 1970 to 49 in 1998. If this trend continues, there will be three times more osteoporotic fractures of the proximal humerus in Finland in the year 2030 than there were in 1998.