Predictors of first onset and recurrence of major depression in young women during the 5 years following high school graduation.

Although most depressive episodes in adulthood are recurrences of the disorder, lifetime history of major depression (MD) is often neglected in predictive models. On the basis of research and theory suggesting differential prediction of MD across the course of the disorder, the authors explored whether factors that predict a first MD onset would not predict MD recurrence. Predictors of MD were examined longitudinally in a sample of 128 young women followed for 5 years. Controlling for lifetime MD history, 5-year MD was predicted by the presence before study entry of 3 variables: having witnessed family violence before age 16, having a parent with a psychiatric disorder, and having a nonmood Axis I disorder. During the follow-up period, chronic and episodic stress predicted MD. Prior lifetime MD interacted with both chronic stress and parental psychopathology to predict MD, such that first onsets, but not recurrences, were predicted by these risk variables.