G J Macfarlane1, E Thomas, N Cherry. 1. Unit of Chronic Disease Epidemiology, School of Epidemiology and Health Sciences, University of Manchester, UK. G.Macfarlane@man.ac.uk
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Armed forces personnel who served in the Gulf War report more current ill-health than those who were not deployed. There has been concern expressed that they may also experience higher mortality rates. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was done including all 53462 UK Gulf War veterans (Gulf cohort) and a comparison group equivalent in size of personnel who were not deployed but matched for age, sex, rank, service, and level of fitness (Era cohort). Individuals were identified on central registers of the Office for National Statistics and information on death among cohort subjects, including cause of death, obtained. Follow-up extended from April 1, 1991 (the end of the Gulf War) until March 31, 1999. FINDINGS: There were 395 deaths among the Gulf cohort and 378 deaths amongst the Era cohort (mortality rate ratio [MRR] 1.05, 95% CI 0.91-1.21). Mortality from "external" causes was higher in the Gulf cohort (Gulf 254, Era 216; MRR 1.18 [0.98-1.42] while mortality from "disease-related" causes was lower (Gulf 122, Era 141; 0.87 [0.67-1.11]). The higher mortality rate from "external" causes in the Gulf cohort was principally due to higher mortality rates from accidents. There was, however, no excess of deaths recorded as suicide in the Gulf cohort. INTERPRETATION: This follow-up of veterans of the Gulf war has shown, 8 years after the end of the conflict, that although they have experienced higher mortality rates than a comparison cohort, the excess mortality rate is very small and does not approach statistical significance. The excess is related mainly to accidents rather than disease, a pattern that is consistent both with US veterans of the Gulf war and veterans from other conflicts.
BACKGROUND: Armed forces personnel who served in the Gulf War report more current ill-health than those who were not deployed. There has been concern expressed that they may also experience higher mortality rates. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was done including all 53462 UK Gulf War veterans (Gulf cohort) and a comparison group equivalent in size of personnel who were not deployed but matched for age, sex, rank, service, and level of fitness (Era cohort). Individuals were identified on central registers of the Office for National Statistics and information on death among cohort subjects, including cause of death, obtained. Follow-up extended from April 1, 1991 (the end of the Gulf War) until March 31, 1999. FINDINGS: There were 395 deaths among the Gulf cohort and 378 deaths amongst the Era cohort (mortality rate ratio [MRR] 1.05, 95% CI 0.91-1.21). Mortality from "external" causes was higher in the Gulf cohort (Gulf 254, Era 216; MRR 1.18 [0.98-1.42] while mortality from "disease-related" causes was lower (Gulf 122, Era 141; 0.87 [0.67-1.11]). The higher mortality rate from "external" causes in the Gulf cohort was principally due to higher mortality rates from accidents. There was, however, no excess of deaths recorded as suicide in the Gulf cohort. INTERPRETATION: This follow-up of veterans of the Gulf war has shown, 8 years after the end of the conflict, that although they have experienced higher mortality rates than a comparison cohort, the excess mortality rate is very small and does not approach statistical significance. The excess is related mainly to accidents rather than disease, a pattern that is consistent both with US veterans of the Gulf war and veterans from other conflicts.
Authors: Khalida Ismail; Kate Kent; Traolach Brugha; Matthew Hotopf; Lisa Hull; Paul Seed; Ian Palmer; Steve Reid; Catherine Unwin; Anthony S David; Simon Wessely Journal: BMJ Date: 2002-09-14