Estimating the population impact of an intervention: a decision-analytic approach.

The aim of this paper is to highlight the role for decision analysis in assessing outcomes of medical interventions at a population level. The basic steps of decision analysis are introduced and an illustrative hypothetical preventive intervention is examined. Specific modelling challenges that arise when estimating the population impact of an intervention are described and each is accompanied by an example. Decision analysis can provide useful information for health policy decision makers by identifying the intervention(s) with the largest beneficial impact on health over a wide range of assumptions. In addition, by focusing attention on the parameters with the greatest influence on projected outcomes, decision analysis can aid in identifying critical areas for future research.