The Red Queen and Fluctuating Epistasis: A Population Genetic Analysis of Antagonistic Coevolution.

Host-parasite coevolution has been shown to provide an advantage to recombination, but the selective mechanism underlying this advantage is unclear. One possibility is that recombination increases the frequency of advantageous genotypes that are disproportionately rare because of fluctuating epistasis. However, for this mechanism to work, epistasis for fitness must fluctuate over a very narrow timescale: two to five generations. Alternatively, recombination may speed up the response to directional selection by breaking up linkage disequilibria that decrease additive genetic variance. Here we analyze the results of a numerical simulation of host-parasite coevolution to assess the importance of these two mechanisms. We find that linkage disequilibria may tend to increase, rather than decrease, additive genetic variance. In addition, the sign of epistasis changes every two to five generations under several of the parameter values investigated, and epistasis and linkage disequilibrium are frequently of opposite signs. These results are consistent with the idea that selection for recombination is mediated by fluctuating epistasis. Finally, we explore the conditions under which an allele causing free recombination can spread in a nonrecombining host population and find general agreement between the predictions of a population genetic model of fluctuating epistasis and our simulation model.