Literature DB >> 10477515

Improved Weather and Seasonal Climate Forecasts from Multimodel Superensemble.

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Abstract

A method for improving weather and climate forecast skill has been developed. It is called a superensemble, and it arose from a study of the statistical properties of a low-order spectral model. Multiple regression was used to determine coefficients from multimodel forecasts and observations. The coefficients were then used in the superensemble technique. The superensemble was shown to outperform all model forecasts for multiseasonal, medium-range weather and hurricane forecasts. In addition, the superensemble was shown to have higher skill than forecasts based solely on ensemble averaging.

Year:  1999        PMID： 10477515     DOI： 10.1126/science.285.5433.1548

Source DB:  PubMed          Journal:  Science        ISSN： 0036-8075            Impact factor:   47.728


  14 in total

1.  Superensemble forecasts of dengue outbreaks.

Authors:  Teresa K Yamana; Sasikiran Kandula; Jeffrey Shaman
Journal:  J R Soc Interface       Date:  2016-10       Impact factor: 4.118

2.  Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza.

Authors:  Jeffrey Shaman; Alicia Karspeck
Journal:  Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A       Date:  2012-11-26       Impact factor: 11.205

3.  Oncology Modeling for Fun and Profit! Key Steps for Busy Analysts in Health Technology Assessment.

Authors:  Jaclyn Beca; Don Husereau; Kelvin K W Chan; Neil Hawkins; Jeffrey S Hoch
Journal:  Pharmacoeconomics       Date:  2018-01       Impact factor: 4.981

4.  Probabilistic seasonal dengue forecasting in Vietnam: A modelling study using superensembles.

Authors:  Felipe J Colón-González; Leonardo Soares Bastos; Barbara Hofmann; Alison Hopkin; Quillon Harpham; Tom Crocker; Rosanna Amato; Iacopo Ferrario; Francesca Moschini; Samuel James; Sajni Malde; Eleanor Ainscoe; Vu Sinh Nam; Dang Quang Tan; Nguyen Duc Khoa; Mark Harrison; Gina Tsarouchi; Darren Lumbroso; Oliver J Brady; Rachel Lowe
Journal:  PLoS Med       Date:  2021-03-04       Impact factor: 11.069

5.  Adaptively stacking ensembles for influenza forecasting.

Authors:  Thomas McAndrew; Nicholas G Reich
Journal:  Stat Med       Date:  2021-10-14       Impact factor: 2.373

6.  Multimodel ensembles of streamflow forecasts: Role of predictor state in developing optimal combinations.

Authors:  Naresh Devineni; A Sankarasubramanian; Sujit Ghosh
Journal:  Water Resour Res       Date:  2008-09       Impact factor: 5.240

7.  North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply.

Authors:  D M Smith; A A Scaife; R Eade; P Athanasiadis; A Bellucci; I Bethke; R Bilbao; L F Borchert; L-P Caron; F Counillon; G Danabasoglu; T Delworth; F J Doblas-Reyes; N J Dunstone; V Estella-Perez; S Flavoni; L Hermanson; N Keenlyside; V Kharin; M Kimoto; W J Merryfield; J Mignot; T Mochizuki; K Modali; P-A Monerie; W A Müller; D Nicolí; P Ortega; K Pankatz; H Pohlmann; J Robson; P Ruggieri; R Sospedra-Alfonso; D Swingedouw; Y Wang; S Wild; S Yeager; X Yang; L Zhang
Journal:  Nature       Date:  2020-07-29       Impact factor: 49.962

8.  Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States.

Authors:  Estee Y Cramer; Evan L Ray; Velma K Lopez; Johannes Bracher; Andrea Brennen; Alvaro J Castro Rivadeneira; Aaron Gerding; Tilmann Gneiting; Katie H House; Yuxin Huang; Dasuni Jayawardena; Abdul H Kanji; Ayush Khandelwal; Khoa Le; Anja Mühlemann; Jarad Niemi; Apurv Shah; Ariane Stark; Yijin Wang; Nutcha Wattanachit; Martha W Zorn; Youyang Gu; Sansiddh Jain; Nayana Bannur; Ayush Deva; Mihir Kulkarni; Srujana Merugu; Alpan Raval; Siddhant Shingi; Avtansh Tiwari; Jerome White; Neil F Abernethy; Spencer Woody; Maytal Dahan; Spencer Fox; Kelly Gaither; Michael Lachmann; Lauren Ancel Meyers; James G Scott; Mauricio Tec; Ajitesh Srivastava; Glover E George; Jeffrey C Cegan; Ian D Dettwiller; William P England; Matthew W Farthing; Robert H Hunter; Brandon Lafferty; Igor Linkov; Michael L Mayo; Matthew D Parno; Michael A Rowland; Benjamin D Trump; Yanli Zhang-James; Samuel Chen; Stephen V Faraone; Jonathan Hess; Christopher P Morley; Asif Salekin; Dongliang Wang; Sabrina M Corsetti; Thomas M Baer; Marisa C Eisenberg; Karl Falb; Yitao Huang; Emily T Martin; Ella McCauley; Robert L Myers; Tom Schwarz; Daniel Sheldon; Graham Casey Gibson; Rose Yu; Liyao Gao; Yian Ma; Dongxia Wu; Xifeng Yan; Xiaoyong Jin; Yu-Xiang Wang; YangQuan Chen; Lihong Guo; Yanting Zhao; Quanquan Gu; Jinghui Chen; Lingxiao Wang; Pan Xu; Weitong Zhang; Difan Zou; Hannah Biegel; Joceline Lega; Steve McConnell; V P Nagraj; Stephanie L Guertin; Christopher Hulme-Lowe; Stephen D Turner; Yunfeng Shi; Xuegang Ban; Robert Walraven; Qi-Jun Hong; Stanley Kong; Axel van de Walle; James A Turtle; Michal Ben-Nun; Steven Riley; Pete Riley; Ugur Koyluoglu; David DesRoches; Pedro Forli; Bruce Hamory; Christina Kyriakides; Helen Leis; John Milliken; Michael Moloney; James Morgan; Ninad Nirgudkar; Gokce Ozcan; Noah Piwonka; Matt Ravi; Chris Schrader; Elizabeth Shakhnovich; Daniel Siegel; Ryan Spatz; Chris Stiefeling; Barrie Wilkinson; Alexander Wong; Sean Cavany; Guido España; Sean Moore; Rachel Oidtman; Alex Perkins; David Kraus; Andrea Kraus; Zhifeng Gao; Jiang Bian; Wei Cao; Juan Lavista Ferres; Chaozhuo Li; Tie-Yan Liu; Xing Xie; Shun Zhang; Shun Zheng; Alessandro Vespignani; Matteo Chinazzi; Jessica T Davis; Kunpeng Mu; Ana Pastore Y Piontti; Xinyue Xiong; Andrew Zheng; Jackie Baek; Vivek Farias; Andreea Georgescu; Retsef Levi; Deeksha Sinha; Joshua Wilde; Georgia Perakis; Mohammed Amine Bennouna; David Nze-Ndong; Divya Singhvi; Ioannis Spantidakis; Leann Thayaparan; Asterios Tsiourvas; Arnab Sarker; Ali Jadbabaie; Devavrat Shah; Nicolas Della Penna; Leo A Celi; Saketh Sundar; Russ Wolfinger; Dave Osthus; Lauren Castro; Geoffrey Fairchild; Isaac Michaud; Dean Karlen; Matt Kinsey; Luke C Mullany; Kaitlin Rainwater-Lovett; Lauren Shin; Katharine Tallaksen; Shelby Wilson; Elizabeth C Lee; Juan Dent; Kyra H Grantz; Alison L Hill; Joshua Kaminsky; Kathryn Kaminsky; Lindsay T Keegan; Stephen A Lauer; Joseph C Lemaitre; Justin Lessler; Hannah R Meredith; Javier Perez-Saez; Sam Shah; Claire P Smith; Shaun A Truelove; Josh Wills; Maximilian Marshall; Lauren Gardner; Kristen Nixon; John C Burant; Lily Wang; Lei Gao; Zhiling Gu; Myungjin Kim; Xinyi Li; Guannan Wang; Yueying Wang; Shan Yu; Robert C Reiner; Ryan Barber; Emmanuela Gakidou; Simon I Hay; Steve Lim; Chris Murray; David Pigott; Heidi L Gurung; Prasith Baccam; Steven A Stage; Bradley T Suchoski; B Aditya Prakash; Bijaya Adhikari; Jiaming Cui; Alexander Rodríguez; Anika Tabassum; Jiajia Xie; Pinar Keskinocak; John Asplund; Arden Baxter; Buse Eylul Oruc; Nicoleta Serban; Sercan O Arik; Mike Dusenberry; Arkady Epshteyn; Elli Kanal; Long T Le; Chun-Liang Li; Tomas Pfister; Dario Sava; Rajarishi Sinha; Thomas Tsai; Nate Yoder; Jinsung Yoon; Leyou Zhang; Sam Abbott; Nikos I Bosse; Sebastian Funk; Joel Hellewell; Sophie R Meakin; Katharine Sherratt; Mingyuan Zhou; Rahi Kalantari; Teresa K Yamana; Sen Pei; Jeffrey Shaman; Michael L Li; Dimitris Bertsimas; Omar Skali Lami; Saksham Soni; Hamza Tazi Bouardi; Turgay Ayer; Madeline Adee; Jagpreet Chhatwal; Ozden O Dalgic; Mary A Ladd; Benjamin P Linas; Peter Mueller; Jade Xiao; Yuanjia Wang; Qinxia Wang; Shanghong Xie; Donglin Zeng; Alden Green; Jacob Bien; Logan Brooks; Addison J Hu; Maria Jahja; Daniel McDonald; Balasubramanian Narasimhan; Collin Politsch; Samyak Rajanala; Aaron Rumack; Noah Simon; Ryan J Tibshirani; Rob Tibshirani; Valerie Ventura; Larry Wasserman; Eamon B O'Dea; John M Drake; Robert Pagano; Quoc T Tran; Lam Si Tung Ho; Huong Huynh; Jo W Walker; Rachel B Slayton; Michael A Johansson; Matthew Biggerstaff; Nicholas G Reich
Journal:  Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A       Date:  2022-04-08       Impact factor: 12.779

9.  Self-Organizing Maps-based ocean currents forecasting system.

Authors:  Ivica Vilibić; Jadranka Šepić; Hrvoje Mihanović; Hrvoje Kalinić; Simone Cosoli; Ivica Janeković; Nedjeljka Žagar; Blaž Jesenko; Martina Tudor; Vlado Dadić; Damir Ivanković
Journal:  Sci Rep       Date:  2016-03-16       Impact factor: 4.379

10.  Stratified coastal ocean interactions with tropical cyclones.

Authors:  S M Glenn; T N Miles; G N Seroka; Y Xu; R K Forney; F Yu; H Roarty; O Schofield; J Kohut
Journal:  Nat Commun       Date:  2016-03-08       Impact factor: 14.919
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