Prognostic significance of the S-phase fraction of light-chain-restricted cytoplasmic immunoglobulin (cIg) positive plasma cells in patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma enrolled on Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group treatment trial E9486.

The bone marrow plasma cell labeling index (PCLI) as measured by bromodeoxyuridine uptake is a well-established independent prognostic factor for patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma, but the test is not easily done in most laboratories. The purpose of this study was to determine if the proliferative activity (% S-phase) as determined by two-color flow cytometry for cytoplasmic immunoglobulin (cIg) light chain and DNA content also had prognostic significance. As part of Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group clinical trial E9486, 500 patients had successful performance of the bone marrow PCLI. Of 349 patients who had flow cIg and DNA content cytometry, 210 had adequate data to reliably calculate S-phase %. Patients with low % S-phase fraction (<2%) had a significant overall survival advantage over patients high % S-phase fraction (>/=2%), median survivals 4.1 vs. 2.9 years (P = 0.032). Measurement of the S-phase % by flow cytometry gives significant prognostic information in patients with newly diagnosed myeloma. However, in multivariate analysis, S-phase % did not add prognostic information when PCLI was in the model. S-phase % added prognostic information only when all cases with flow measurement of S-phase % were included, and when PCLI was excluded from the model. Discriminating a population of only cIg positive cells proved difficult in patients with a low percentage of bone marrow plasma cells. Methodology to measure S-phase % in patients with a low percent plasma cells is needed before this technique can be used for diagnosis and prognosis in myeloma. Copyright 1999 Wiley-Liss, Inc.