Estimating changes in unrecorded alcohol consumption in Norway using indicators of harm.

AIM: To assess the value of using indicators of alcohol-related harm to estimate changes in unrecorded per capita consumption of alcohol.
DESIGN: Unrecorded consumption was estimated from the discrepancy between the observed changes in a number of alcohol-related harm indicators and the changes that would be expected from changes in recorded consumption. The results were compared with estimates of unrecorded consumption from survey data. MEASUREMENTS: Four indicators of alcohol-related harm were used: alcohol-related mortality, assaults, drunken driving, and suicide. Estimates of unrecorded consumption from survey data for five different years were used as benchmarks.
FINDINGS: The best performing indicators were alcohol-related mortality, suicide and assaults, in that order. Combining these indicators yielded a prediction error averaging 12% in comparison with the benchmarks.
CONCLUSIONS: The method seems worthy of further applications, but it should be regarded as a supplement rather than as a substitute for other approaches.