Rapid risk household screening by neonatal arm circumference: results from a cohort study in rural Burkina Faso.

Neonatal arm circumference (NAC) and other attributes of the newborn and its household were analysed as potential predictors of child death in a cohort of 1367 newborn children representing the majority of births in a rural area of Burkina Faso from 1992 to 1994. During 3872 person years observed 264 children died, resulting in an average mortality rate of 6.8% per year. 90 mm was chosen as the best cut-off to differentiate low NAC associated with high mortality from normal NAC. The hazard ratio of children with low NAC (15.7%) compared to others was 1.7 (P < 0.001) in Cox regression. Kaplan-Meier curves of cumulative survival showed that this higher risk lasted throughout the first two years of life. Multivariate Cox regression comparing NAC with other variables known or suspected to influence child survival yielded a model including mother's death, twin birth, affiliation to a particular health centre, home delivery and birth during the rainy or harvest season as other significant risk factors beside NAC. Protective factors were mother's participation in antenatal care despite considerable distance to the health centre, medium household size (5-7 members) and household cash crop production. We propose a simple risk score for rapid household screening in rural Burkina Faso and comparable settings elsewhere for identifying households at risk of experiencing child death. As much of the other variables' contribution to the explanation of survival pattern is absorbed by NAC in more parsimonious models, even simpler screening strategies based on NAC make sense. In the study area risk households will be offered periodical home visits by the local nurse promoting immunization, treatment of illness and strengthening the mothers' competence to recognize and manage frequent health problems of their children as part of a 'Shared Care' concept.