[Prospective study of predicting hospital length of stay for internal medicine patients].

We conducted a prospective study to see how accurately hospital doctors can predict length of patient stays on an acute medical ward. The study covered an 18-month period and included all internal medicine patients admitted to Clinic B of Basel University Hospital. 1989 patients (57% male and 43% female) were included. Average age was 62.5 years. Average stay was 15.3 days against an average predicted 14.6 days (S.D. 0.7, not significantly different at 5% C.I. Correlation coefficient 0.44-slight correlation). The discharge destination was accurately predicted in 90% of patients going home and in 80% of patients who later died. However, prediction of those patients who would require further rehabilitation or a nursing home place was poor (60% and 50% respectively). The results show that although the average predicted hospital stay was fairly accurate, for individuals it varied widely. Short hospital stays were generally overpredicted and longer stays underpredicted. The causes of prolonged stays were medical in 60% of cases, social in 20%, inefficient organization in 10% and other in 10%. Patients requiring only nursing care accounted for only 6% of all bed occupancies.