Referral rates and waiting lists: some empirical evidence.

This paper provides some empirical evidence on topics discussed at greater length in a recent paper in Health Economics (Goddard, J.A., Malek, M. and Tavakoli, M. Health Economics 1995; 4: 41-55), which modelled the relationship between referral rates and waiting lists for hospital treatment for non-urgent conditions within a queuing theory framework. Here, we estimate a version of the demand function used in this model, with panel data for Scottish Health Board Areas during the period 1990-1992. Separate models are estimated for each of six broadly defined 'waiting list' specialisms, for which we have data on referral rates and waiting times. The six specialisms are General Surgery, Ear Nose and Throat Surgery, Gynaecology, Ophthalmology, Orthopaedics and Urology.