Pathologic parameters in the diagnosis and prognosis of primary cutaneous melanoma.

Significant progress has been made in the last 10 years on the identification of histologic parameters that are independent predictors of melanoma prognosis, immunohistochemical markers of cells of melanocytic origin and changes in adhesion molecules, cytoskeletal proteins, growth factor receptors, cell signaling, and nuclear proliferation proteins associated with tumor progression. Histologic criteria may never be completely sufficient to predict behavior accurately, because the fundamental change that renders a cell aggressive may not be morphologically reflected and may require immunohistochemical or other molecular markers to establish behavior. To date, it is humbling that no immunohistochemical or molecular marker provides a greater predictable value for aggressive behavior than does the simple calibrated ocular micrometer to measure tumor thickness. Nevertheless, development of multiple histologic parameters with the concept of nontumorigenic RGP and tumorigenic VGP provides a reliable statistical model to predict metastases. Fortunately, nontumorigenic RGP melanomas with greater than 75% regression are rare. Thus, individual patients with melanoma without regression and without the tumorigenic VGP can be given reasonable assurance of 100% survival. Nevertheless, this assurance is based on a statistical model with a finite population studied. Additional studies are needed to confirm this model, as well as more definitive markers to precisely predict outcome for those individuals with tumorigenic VGP melanoma.