L Toubiana1, A Flahault. 1. INSERM U 444, Institut Fédératif Saint-Antoine de Recherche sur la Santé, Paris, France. toubiana@b3e.jussieu.fr
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: To develop a method based on a space-time criterion for early detection of epidemics of influenza-like-illness in France. METHODS: Since 1984, the French Communicable Diseases computer Network (FCDN) routinely detects epidemics of influenza-like-illness when the national incidence rate is, for 2 consecutive weeks, above a threshold computed by a periodic regression model. It appears that some areas reported early increases in incidence several weeks before the national epidemic. An optimised space-time criterion allows an early detection of the epidemic periods. RESULTS: Applying this space-time criterion to the last 11 epidemics (from 1986), the sensitivity was 0.82 and the specificity was 0.99. CONCLUSION: This simple procedure can be used as an additional tool for early detection of an epidemic taking into account the distribution of new cases in space and time.
OBJECTIVES: To develop a method based on a space-time criterion for early detection of epidemics of influenza-like-illness in France. METHODS: Since 1984, the French Communicable Diseases computer Network (FCDN) routinely detects epidemics of influenza-like-illness when the national incidence rate is, for 2 consecutive weeks, above a threshold computed by a periodic regression model. It appears that some areas reported early increases in incidence several weeks before the national epidemic. An optimised space-time criterion allows an early detection of the epidemic periods. RESULTS: Applying this space-time criterion to the last 11 epidemics (from 1986), the sensitivity was 0.82 and the specificity was 0.99. CONCLUSION: This simple procedure can be used as an additional tool for early detection of an epidemic taking into account the distribution of new cases in space and time.
Authors: A Flahault; P Garnerin; P Chauvin; N Farran; Y Saidi; C Diaz; L Toubiana; J Drucker; A J Valleron Journal: Lancet Date: 1995-07-15 Impact factor: 79.321