Spatially explicit model of transposon-based genetic drive mechanisms for displacing fluctuating populations of anopheline vector mosquitoes.

To evaluate the prospect of transposon-based genetic drive mechanisms for replacing African vectors of malaria with nonvector anopheline mosquitoes, we developed a spatially explicit simulation model that determined the likelihood that released transgenic mosquitoes may proceed to fixation or extinction under diverse conditions. We compared the effect on fixation of long breeding seasons with relatively subtle population fluctuations to short breeding seasons with severe bottlenecks. Assuming 100% transposition efficiency among heterozygotes with fitness varying between 50 and 100% of that of wild-type mosquitoes, we simulated releases of 1, 10, 50, 90, and 99% of transposon-bearers in relation to wild mosquitoes as well as 1 and 10% releases that were repeated annually. We also evaluated diverse patterns of release including linear, marginal, focused, and scattered distribution. Random dispersal provided the most rapid fixation of transposons within populations. More massive releases allowed longer persistence of transposon-bearers but did not promote fixation, especially when breeding seasons were long. Relative fitness of transposon-bearers, however, proved more powerful than pattern or number of releases in determining whether a construct will become fixed or extinct. Even when fitness approaches that of the wild-type, fixation of a construct may require 150 generations or more.