Early prognostic indicators in primary perinatal human immunodeficiency virus type 1 infection: importance of viral RNA and the timing of transmission on long-term outcome.

The time of perinatal human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) transmission and the pattern of early plasma viremia as predictors of disease progression were evaluated in infected infants followed from birth. Cox proportional hazards modeling demonstrated that a 1-log higher HIV-1 RNA copy number at birth was associated with a 40% increase in the relative hazard (RH) of developing CDC class A or B symptoms (P = .004), a 60% increase in developing AIDS (P = .01), and an 80% increase in the of risk death (P = .023) over the follow-up period of up to 8 years. The peak HIV-1 RNA copy number for infants during primary viremia was also predictive of progression to AIDS (RH, 9.9; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.8-54.1; P = .008) and death (RH, 6.9; 95% CI, 1.1-43.8; P = .04). The results indicate that high levels of HIV-1 RNA at birth and during primary viremia are associated with early onset of symptoms and rapid disease progression to AIDS and death in perinatally infected children.