The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic and HIV-associated nephropathy.

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-associated nephropathy (HIVAN), the single most common cause of end-stage renal failure in seropositive patients, has increased in incidence by 30% each year since 1991. Occurring almost exclusively in blacks, HIVAN became the third leading cause of ESRD in blacks, ages 20 to 64, in 1995. During that year, the absolute number of new acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) cases declined for the first time since the epidemic began. The decrease occurred predominantly in white males, whereas in blacks with heterosexual exposures for risk factors, the incidence actually increased. Also in 1995, the number of AIDS-related deaths declined for the first time. If these trends continue, we can expect a continued increase in the number of blacks living with AIDS. We estimate that 1% to 4% will develop renal failure from HIVAN. The incidence of HIVAN can be expected to increase unless new approaches are successful in preventing the spread of HIV-1 in all segments of the population or in treating the renal complications of HIV-1 infection.