Evolution of malaria in Africa for the past 40 years: impact of climatic and human factors.

Different malarial situations in Africa within the past 40 years are discussed in order to evaluate the impact of climatic and human factors on the disease. North of the equator, more droughts and lower rainfall have been recorded since 1972; and in eastern and southern Africa, there have been alternating dry and wet periods in relation to El Niño. Since 1955, the increase in human population from 125 to 450 million has resulted in both expansion of land cultivation and urbanization. In stable malaria areas of West and Central Africa and on the Madagascar coasts, the endemic situation has not changed since 1955. However, in unstable malaria areas such as the highlands and Sahel significant changes have occurred. In Madagascar, cessation of malaria control programs resulted in the deadly epidemic of 1987-88. The same situation was observed in Swaziland in 1984-85. In Uganda, malaria incidence has increased more than 30 times in the highlands (1,500-1,800 m), but its altitudinal limit has not overcome that of the beginning of the century. Cultivation of valley bottoms and extension of settlements are in large part responsible for this increase, along with abnormally heavy rainfall that favored the severe epidemic of 1994. A similar increase in malaria was observed in neighboring highlands of Rwanda and Burundi, and epidemics have been recorded in Ethiopia since 1958. In contrast, in the Sahel (Niayes region, Senegal), stricken by droughts since 1972, endemic malaria decreased drastically after the disappearance of the main vector, Anopheles funestus, due to the destruction of its larval sites by cultivation. Even during the very wet year of 1995. An funestus did not reinvade the region and malaria did not increase. The same situation was observed in the Sahelian zone of Niger. Therefore, the temperature increase of 0.5 degree C during the last 2 decades cannot be incriminated as a major cause for these malaria changes, which are mainly due to the combination of climatic, human, and operational factors.