Parasite extinction and colonisation and the evolution of parasite communities: a simulation study.

We determined what evolutionary processes influence the likelihood of detecting an effect of host ecological characteristics on the richness of parasite communities in comparative analyses among related host species. We used a mathematical model to generate phylogenies of hosts in which parasite communities varied over evolutionary time as parasite species were either gained or lost during host speciation events. Gain or loss of parasites were stochastic and could either be strongly, moderately, weakly, or not, affected by host ecological characteristics. The model was evaluated over this range of effects of host ecology, and for various mean probabilities of parasite gain and loss and various rates of change in host ecological characteristics at speciation events. Our results suggest that phylogenetic effects (the passing of parasite species from mother to daughter host species) are likely to obscure ecological effects (the effect of host body size, diet, habitat, lifespan, etc.) except when the effects of host ecology are strong, and the probabilities of gain or loss of parasites are high, or host ecological characteristics change markedly at speciation events. This outcome was not influenced by the shape of the phylogenetic tree used in the simulations. Sensitivity analysis of our model also shows this result to be robust to a wide range of assumptions and parameter values. Thus, because the composition of parasite communities tends to reflect their ancestry, the effect of host ecology will often be very difficult to detect.