Predicting the emergence and persistence of alcohol dependence in young adults: the role of expectancy and other risk factors.

The relationship of alcohol outcome expectancies and other risk factors: demographic, personality, and affectivity, to alcohol dependence status was examined over a 3.5-year interval in 1,007 young adults. Lifetime prevalence of alcohol dependence was 18.1% at baseline. Of persons classified as current alcohol dependent at baseline, 66.9% experienced remission at the 3.5-year follow-up. Of persons classified as remitted alcohol dependent at baseline, 11.3% were current alcohol dependent at the 3.5-year follow-up. At follow-up, 5% of persons with no history of alcohol dependence at baseline met criteria for current alcohol dependence. Male gender, higher extraversion, and lower positive affect scores predicted emergent current alcohol dependence at the 3.5-year interval. Persistent current alcohol dependence was predicted by the expectation of improved social and sexual experiences following alcohol use. The findings suggest that positive expectancies may be an important factor in persistence of alcohol dependence and that their modification may enhance treatment of alcohol dependence in young adults.