The decline of smoking among Swedish men.

BACKGROUND: In 1987 the Association of the Nordic Cancer Registers (ANCR) predicted the incidence of lung cancer in the Nordic countries up to the years 2000 and 2010. The predictions for Sweden can now be considered against recent information on smoking habits.
METHODS: Regular, question-based studies on the public's tobacco consumption are carried out by four separate institutions in Sweden. This article summarizes and updates the smoking habits among Swedish men in the age groups 35-54 and 55-70 years between 1963 and 1994, with special focus on smoking cessation.
RESULTS: Between 1963 and 1994, there was a significant and continuous decrease in the prevalence of smoking among Swedish men. During this time ex-smoking men increased from 20% to 41%. The data reveal a continuous, unbroken and uniform increase in smoking cessation rates during the last 20 years, despite the small success of smoking cessation programmes and smoking-relapse rates of 75-80%. The explanation of this seems to be the surprisingly high frequency of smokers who attempted to stop smoking each year (about 30%). The best success rate in smoking cessation was achieved by occasional smokers and others with a low cigarette consumption.
CONCLUSION: With the continuing fall in the numbers of smoking men, a greater drop in lung cancer incidence than predicted by the ANCR in 1987 may be expected in Sweden within the coming decade.