Secular trends in the osteoporotic fractures of the distal humerus in elderly women.

Osteoporosis, with its sequelae of fracture, is a major, continuously increasing threat to the health of the elderly, and therefore reliable epidemiological information is needed for assessment of the fracture development in the future and for effective fracture prevention. However, very little population-based information is available concerning the nationwide numbers, incidences and especially secular trends of osteoporotic fractures other than those occurring at the hip. We determined the current trends in the number and incidence of osteoporotic fractures of the distal humerus in Finnish women in 1970-1995 by collecting from the National Hospital Discharge Register all female patients aged 60 years or more who were admitted to our hospitals in 1970-1972, 1974-1975, 1978-1980, 1983-1985 and 1988-1995 for primary treatment of first osteoporotic fracture of the distal humerus. The fracture was defined as osteoporotic if it occurred on individuals aged 60 years or more as a consequence of a moderate or minimal trauma only (a fall from standing height or less). We also predicted the fracture development till the year 2030 by a regression model, a model that took into account the predicted changes in the fracture incidences and population at risk. The number and incidence (per 100,000 women) of osteoporotic fractures of the distal humerus in Finnish women aged 60 years or more increased from 42 (number) and 11 (incidence) in 1970 to 175 and 30 in 1995. The age-adjusted incidence of osteoporotic fractures of the distal humerus also increased, from 12/100,000 women in 1970 to 28/100,000 women in 1995. If this trend continues, the number of these fractures in Finnish women will be almost three-fold in the year 2030 compared with that in 1995. We conclude that the number of osteoporotic fractures of the distal humerus in elderly Finnish women is increasing more rapidly than can be accounted for by the demographic changes alone and therefore effective preventive measures are imperative to keep this problem in control.