Value of the signal-averaged P wave analysis in predicting atrial fibrillation after cardiac surgery.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained arrhythmia occurring after cardiac surgery. Beside important implications regarding patient recovery, AF has been shown to substantially lengthen hospital stay--our recent study found a 3-day prolongation after adjusting for all other significant factors. Identification of those at highest risk of AF by clinical or noninvasive characteristics may be a useful strategy for targeted prophylactic therapy. Our data have shown that prolonged atrial conduction as assessed by analysis of the P wave duration from the signal-averaged electrocardiogram (SAECG) imparts a four fold increase in risk for postoperative AF, independently of other measured variables. In addition, abnormal conduction was present on the preoperative P wave ECG (P-SAECG), implying a preexisting substrate that is triggered by surgery. The use of combination abnormal noninvasive variables (eg, abnormal P-SAECG and low left ventricular ejection fraction) can identify groups with a 50% risk of AF, which is nine times as high as when both tests are normal. Thus, the P-SAECG is a useful and accurate predictor of AF after cardiac surgery.