Can parental longevity and self-rated life expectancy predict mortality among older persons? Results from an Australian cohort.

This study examined the effects of parental longevity and self-rated life expectancy on mortality, building upon the established model of self-rated health predicting mortality. A community sample of Australians aged 70 and over was surveyed in 1992 and 1995. The associations of interest were examined separately by sex using weighted multiple logistic regression. Parental ages at death were not associated with mortality for either men or women. In multivariate models, self-rated life expectancy had an independent effect on men's mortality and did not reduce the effect of self-rated health on mortality. Our findings from Australia are consistent with results from many countries; the effect of self-rated health on mortality is stronger for men than for women. We also found that the effect of self-rated life expectancy on mortality is stronger for men than for women. The independent effects of self-rated health and self-rated life expectancy indicate a need for a more detailed search for explanatory mechanisms.