Social comparison and task prediction: ability similarity and the use of a proxy.

It is argued that an important aspect of the self-appraisal of ability involves a person's prediction of his or her own performance level on untried tasks through acquisition of knowledge about how other people have fared at the task. These others are treated as substitutes for a person's own participation in the task--as proxies. It is further argued that social comparison plays a significant role in both the selection of proxies and the impact of proxy information on task prediction. The first experiment, following earlier research on comparison preference in the context of performance prediction, showed that participants interested in performance prediction chose a proxy who had performed at about the same level as they had on a reference task, while those interested in improving their performances chose to see the performances of someone who had done far better than they on the reference task. The second study indicated that participants made more confident predictions for themselves from a similar proxy's task outcome than from that of a proxy whose ability was unknown to them. Participants predicted they would do worse than a more able proxy and better than a less able proxy, but were less confident in their predictions than were those with a similar proxy. Ratings of usefulness of the proxy followed the patterns of confidence ratings closely.