Will combinatorial chemistry deliver real medicines?

Over the next decade, the impact of library synthesis will play a major role in shortening the lead optimization phase of drug discovery. The prognosis for combinatorial chemistry to discover fundamentally different new classes of therapeutically active small molecules against some of the more difficult biological targets is less certain. Expectations are high because the technology potentially allows us to sample available drug space by synthesizing all possible small molecule ligands (variously estimated to be between 10(30)-10(50) compounds). Some caution is advised, however, since, despite recent increases in high-throughput screening of substantially greater numbers of synthetic compounds and natural products, we are not routinely finding a plethora of new structures. The outcome may be that combinational chemistry offers us the ability to work faster on finding ligands for well-established tractable targets, such as G-protein-coupled receptors, ion channels or proteases, rather than, say, the more complex protein-protein interactions which from the majority of targets in signal transduction pathways.