A simulation model for the spread of bovine tuberculosis within New Zealand cattle herds.

Bovine tuberculosis, caused by Mycobacterium bovis, presents a major problem to New Zealand agriculture because of the risk that it poses to export-market access. New Zealand research has focused largely on the epidemiology of the disease in wildlife reservoirs, and relatively little is known about the dynamics of the disease in cattle. This study, therefore, investigates bovine tuberculosis (Tb) dynamics within cattle herds, by construction and application of a simple simulation model of disease transmission. The model was designed firstly to estimate rates of disease transmission within herds, and secondly to identify likely consequences of changes in herd Tb-testing policies. Both deterministic and stochastic versions of the model were used to achieve these aims. The model suggests that within-herd Tb transmission does occur and contributes to the reactor rates observed under annual herd testing regimens. The mass-action disease transmission coefficient (proportion of susceptible animals infected per unit time per infectious animal, i.e. not per diseased animal or per reactor), appears to be in the order of 2.7 x 10(-5) per cow per day for a typical herd of around 200 animals, resulting in a contact rate (number of potentially infectious contacts made per infectious cow per day) of about 0.0073. These are average estimates for both beef and dairy herds. Model results suggest that improving the sensitivity of the test used to diagnose bovine Tb would improve control in areas where wildlife reservoirs are absent but have little effect where they are present. Reducing the time between tests of herds on Tb-induced movement control from the current 6 months to 2 or 3 months reduces the average time a herd spends on movement control and hence national Tb prevalence. In the presence of wildlife reservoirs of infection, both the total number of tests and total reactors per unit time increase, but the extent depends on the level of external infection. In all scenarios examined, involving thousands of model runs in total, infection was invariably absent from the modelled herd by the time it was considered clear of Tb based on testing results. This suggests that the caudal fold test is a realistic measure of herd Tb status and that Tb is unlikely to persist in herds under current testing practices in the absence of anergic cattle or an external source of infection. Specificity of the caudal-fold test as used in practice was estimated to be greater than 99%.