Expectations of nursing home use in the Health and Retirement Study: the role of gender, health, and family characteristics.

Economic models of life cycle behavior suggest that expectations about future events may affect savings, insurance, and retirement planning. This article uses data from the first wave of the Health and Retirement Survey (HRS) to examine how personal characteristics and health conditions influence expectations of nursing home use. Subjective expectations of nursing home use are quite close to known probabilities of lifetime use. There are marked differences in the determinants of expectations for women and men that also conform to actual behavior. There is strong evidence that women and men incorporate what is known about nursing home risk into their own expectations, even many years prior to the time when they are most likely to need long-term care.