Prediction of ozone-induced FEV1 changes. Effects of concentration, duration, and ventilation.

The purpose of this analysis of previously published data was to identify a model that accurately predicts the mean ozone-induced FEV1 response of humans as a function of concentration (C), minute ventilation (VE), duration of exposure (T), and age. Healthy young adults (n = 485) were exposed for 2 h to one of six ozone concentrations while exercising at one of three levels. Candidate models were fitted to portions of the data and evaluated on the basis of their ability to predict the mean response of independent samples. A sigmoid-shaped model that is consistent with previous observations of ozone exposure-response (E-R) characteristics was identified and found to accurately predict the mean response with independent data. This model in a more general form may allow the prediction of responses under conditions of changing C and VE. We did not find that response was more sensitive to changes in C than in VE, nor did we find convincing evidence of an effect of body size upon response. We did find that response to ozone decreases with age. In summary, we have identified a biologically plausible, predictive model that quantifies the relationship between the ozone-induced change in FEV1, and C, VE, T, and age.