Epidemiological surveillance of tick populations: a model to predict the colonization success of Ixodes ricinus (Acari:Ixodidae).

A model that predicts the habitat availability for permanent populations of the tick Ixodes ricinus has been developed and applied to Spain. The model is based on the fuzzy logic rules and has a spatial resolution of about 4 km. Six long-term climate variables, which cover temperature and rainfall factors, drive the model by assigning the expected probability to find stable tick populations. Because the high accuracy of this inference tool, it could be used to map favourable sites for this tick in the epidemiological lookout of the Ixodes ricinus borne diseases.