Cognitive predictors of incident Alzheimer's disease: a prospective longitudinal study.

The present study examined whether cognitive variables measured at baseline could predict incident cases of Alzheimer's disease (AD) after a 3-year follow-up period. Twenty-six incident AD adults and 179 very old (M = 83.5 years) adults without dementia participated in a population-based study. Cognitive performance was indexed by the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and multiple indices of memory and visuospatial and verbal performance. A logistic regression analysis that controlled for age, gender, and education indicated that MMSE scores were reliable indicators of who would develop AD. In addition, recall of organizable words, recognition of faces, and letter fluency were reliable predictors of subsequent dementia status after differences in MMSE performance were partialed out. Thus, although the MMSE is useful in predicting dementia, there is an additional advantage of assessing specific indices of cognitive functioning. Further, supportive episodic memory tasks may be more salient predictors of incident AD than tasks that offer less supportive encoding or retrieval conditions.