A theoretical framework for evaluating the sensitivity of surveillance for detecting wild poliovirus: I. Factors affecting detection sensitivity in a person with acute flaccid paralysis.

Surveillance for cases of acute flaccid paralysis provides a means for detecting circulating wild poliovirus in a population and therefore is crucial to the global polio eradication effort. An initial step toward developing a more general framework for understanding the sensitivity of the acute flaccid paralysis surveillance system is presented by first specifying four categories of sensitivity involved: laboratory sensitivity, specimen sensitivity, person sensitivity, and population sensitivity. Using this framework, estimates for specimen sensitivity (the probability that virus will be detected in a specimen collected from an infected person) and the prevalence of infection are derived and applied to surveillance data from three regions. On the basis of the framework, our analysis indicates that a second specimen may significantly increase person sensitivity under some circumstances but provides little improvement under others.