New and classical risk factors--the Münster heart study (PROCAM).

A total of 4,849 male participants of the prospective cardiovascular Münster Study (PROCAM), aged 40 - 65 years underwent extensive screening for cardiovascular risk factors before 1986 and were subsequently followed up for at least 8 years. During this time 189 non-fatal and 49 fatal myocardial infarctions occurred, 28 men suffered a sudden cardiac death and 169 persons died of other causes. Using multivariate statistical methods we confirmed that age, increased LDL cholesterol levels, decreased HDL cholesterol levels, high blood pressure, cigarette smoking, diabetes mellitus, angina pectoris and a positive family history are important risk factors for a myocardial infarction or cardiac death. The results of the PROCAM Study demonstrate that elevated triglycerides are an independent risk factor for an early myocardial infarction or cardiac death. Using a multiple logistic function analysis an algorithm for the assessment of the global risk was derived from the data. The observed incidence of coronary heart disease rises sharply as the global risk increases, thus permitting the use of this algorithm in clinical practice for the assessment of the individual risk of myocardial infarction. Risk factors such as lipoprotein(a) and coagulation factors may improve the predictive value of this algorithm. Furthermore it is expected that the exploration of genetic defects will strongly increase the predictive value and precise determination of individual risk.